NHRA - National Hot Rod Association

After an upset-filled weekend in Las Vegas, all four NHRA Mission Foods Drag Racing Series world championships will all be decided in a dramatic showdown at the In-N-Out Burger NHRA Finals.

Top Fuel is a two-horse race between Kalitta Motorsports teammates Shawn Langdon and Doug Kalitta while six drivers Funny Car – Matt Hagan, Jordan Vandergriff, J.R. Todd, Austin Prock, Jack Beckman, and Ron Capps – all still mathematically in the fight, but it’s really down to Hagan, Vandergriff, and Todd.

The Pro Stock war is still being waged among five drivers – Dallas Glenn, Greg Stanfield, Greg Anderson, and Troy Coughlin Jr. – while the shootout in Pro Stock Motorcycle is down to Richard Gadson, Gaige Herrera, and Matt Smith.

Before we look at the scenarios, here’s a quick reminder of what’s still on the table. A driver can earn a maximum of 191 points.
Make a qualifying attempt: 15
Maximum session points: 16 
Qualify No. 1: 10
Win event: 150

Here’s a class-by-class look at the scenarios.

TOP FUEL

Langdon leads Kalitta by 107 points and needs only to win in Round 1 to clinch. With 30 points awarded per round win, Kalitta needs to go four rounds further than Langdon to win his third championship.

If Langdon loses in the first round, Kalitta can win the championship if he wins the race. If Langdon outscores Kalitta by 13 or more points in qualifying, then he’s the champion regardless of what happens in Round 1.

The most unlikely scenario is Kalitta doesn’t qualify and Langdon wraps it up on Saturday at the conclusion of qualifying or Langdon doesn’t qualify, and Kalitta needs to get to the semi’s to clinch.

TOP FUEL POINTS PROJECTIONS (does not include qualifying session or position points)

FUNNY CAR

Hagan leads Vandergriff by 39 points, meaning that Vandergriff needs to go two rounds further to pass Hagan. Hagan would clinches if he reaches the final, no matter what Vandergriff does unless, of course, Vandergriff is able to earn nine or more points more than Hagan in qualifying to get Hagan’s lead under 30, in which case he would need to go just one round further than Hagan.

Vandergriff’s path to the championship is for him to win the race and Hagan to lose in the semifinals or make the final with Hagan losing in the second round, or make the semifinals with Hagan losing in the first round (again, adjust these to one less round if Vandergriff is +9 or more in qualifying).

Hagan is 104 over Todd, meaning Todd needs to go four rounds further to pass Hagan. Todd’s only road to the championship is for Hagan to lose in the first round, Vandergriff to lose in the first or second round, and for Todd to win the race

Vandergriff leads Todd by 65 points, meaning Todd needs to go three rounds further to pass Vandergriff.

Prock is 141 points out of the lead and will be eliminated in qualifying unless Prock outscores Hagan by  22 points or more in qualifying. The only way that can happen is if Hagan qualifies 9th or worse and Prock is quickest in all four sessions and qualifies No. 1. Then Prock would need to win the race while Hagan loses in the first round.

Beckman (-151) and Capps (-155) will be eliminated when Hagan qualifies for the 16-car field.

Once qualifying is over, the most likely scenario is that it comes down to Hagan, Vandergriff, or Todd.

FUNNY CAR POINTS PROJECTIONS (does not include qualifying session or position points)

PRO STOCK

Glenn leads Hartford by 87 points, Greg Stanfield by 99 points, Greg Anderson by 119 points, and Coughlin by 131. Glenn can significantly improve his math if he can outscore Hartford by three points in qualifying. If that happens, Glenn clinches the championship

Otherwise, Glenn can clinch the championship if he reaches the semifinals or earlier if he earns at least four more points in qualifying.

Once qualifying is over, the most likely scenario is it comes down to Glenn, Hartford, Stanfield, and Anderson.

If Glenn wins in the first round, then Stanfield and Anderson are eliminated. (If Glenn outscores Anderson by two more points in qualifying, then Anderson is eliminated regardless of what happens on Sunday. If Glenn outscores Stanfield by 21 points or more in qualifying, then Stanfield is eliminated regardless of what happens on Sunday.)

If Glenn loses in the first round, Hartford wins the championship if he reaches the final round, and loses to anyone but Stanfield or Anderson. If Glenn loses in the second round, Hartford can win the championship by winning the event. If they are not eliminated in qualifying, Stanfield or Anderson would win the championship only if they wins the race in this scenario.

Coughlin can only have a mathematical chance on Sunday if he outscores Glenn by 12 or more points in qualifying. Otherwise he’d be eliminated on Saturday. 

PRO STOCK POINTS PROJECTIONS (does not include qualifying session or position points)

PRO STOCK MOTORCYCLE

Because the Las Vegas  Pro Stock Motorcycle final between Gadson and Herrera was not completed due to excessive winds, it is now tentatively scheduled to take place during the third qualifying session of the Finals on Saturday.

If Gadson wins the Vegas final, he would be 75 points up on Herrera, and win the championship if he wins in the second round. Either way, Herrera would need to go three rounds further than Gadson to beat him for the championship, i.e., win the race if Gadson loses in the second round, or make the final if Gadson loses in the first round.

Matt Smith would be eliminated when Gadson makes a qualifying attempt.

If Herrera wins the Vegas final, Gadson would be 35 up on him, and would win the championship if he wins in the semifinals. Herrera would need to go two rounds further than Gadson to beat him for the championship: win the race if Gadson loses in the semi’s or make the final if Gadson loses in the second round or win in the semi’s if Gadson loses in the first round.

Smith would need Gadson to not qualify, Herrera to lose in the first round, and for him to win the race to claim his seventh world championship.

PRO STOCK MOTORCYCLE POINTS PROJECTIONS (does not include qualifying session or position points)

If Gadson wins the Las Vegas final:

If Herrera wins the Las Vegas final: